The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
Concerns are mounting among financial experts that the latest federal budget could prompt a rise in interest rates, adding to the challenges faced by borrowers.
Economists have critiqued the 2024 budget for its "stimulative" nature, igniting fears it may counteract the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) efforts to control inflation. This unexpected budgetary shift has led to speculation of potential interest rate hikes rather than impending cuts, which had been anticipated earlier this year.
David Bassanese, Betashares' chief economist, highlighted the increased fiscal spending as a surprising move, given the current economic climate. "The substantial fiscal expansion seen in the budget, particularly in cost-of-living support, appears to have encouraged higher spending in other areas, possibly underestimating the RBA's tolerance for such policies," he observed.
From a balance sheet perspective, the deficit is projected to jump from $9 billion to a staggering $28 billion in the 2024-25 period. This shift, equaling about 1.3% of GDP, signifies a pronounced swing towards fiscal stimulus, raising concerns about further inflationary pressures.
Furthermore, household disposable income is predicted to rise by 3.5% in the next fiscal year, boosted by tax reductions and an energy rebate of $300. Yet, this does not align with the forecasted 2% increase in consumer spending. Mr. Bassanese warned that if households decide to spend rather than save this windfall, the odds of increased interest rates could climb significantly.
Current estimates now put the probability of a rate hike before the next federal election at 40%, a substantial increase from the previous 10%. The unpredictability of how Australians will utilize their enhanced disposable income keeps both economists and policymakers on edge.
According to Stephen Halmarick, Commonwealth Bank's chief economist, the renewed fiscal approach renders earlier expectations of rate cuts - foreseen to begin as early as November - tenuous. The bank's internal estimates had initially projected a drop to 3% by the end of 2025, but these seem increasingly optimistic.
Budget papers reveal an anticipated modest cash rate reduction of 0.75% by 2026, decreasing from the current rates still north of 4%. This gradual easing may now be viewed in a new light, with inflationary pressures potentially suppressing any significant rate cuts over the short term.
Attention has also been drawn to various initiatives within the budget, especially a $23 billion fund for sectors including green hydrogen and critical minerals, aimed at energizing the domestic economy. However, critics argue that in an employment landscape marked by shortages, such expansive policies could further aggravate inflation.
Carlos Cacho, chief economist at Jarden, estimates the budget will inject an additional $30 billion in fiscal stimulus, risking an upward spiral in inflation. KPMG's Brendan Rynne shares this view, describing the budget as creating "upward pressure on inflation," supported by policies that may only temporarily mask the true economic impact until post-election.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Andrew McKellar echoed these sentiments, asserting that enlarging government size and expenditure could lead to increased costs and taxes, thus complicating the economic landscape for businesses.
Despite the prevailing concern, Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, indicated that while the risk of prolonged higher rates remains, there is still a probability of rate reductions starting November. Westpac's economists, on the other hand, argue the budget's specifics should not fundamentally alter the RBA's timeline for potential rate cuts.
The intricate balance between fiscal policies and market reactions makes it crucial for stakeholders to stay informed and prepared for various economic scenarios that lie ahead.
Published:Monday, 20th May 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has recently conducted a comprehensive review of the nation's motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant issues that raise concerns about responsible lending practices. The findings indicate that some consumers are being subjected to exorbitant fees and are defaulting on their loans shortly after approval. - read more
In a significant development within the Australian financial sector, Allied Credit has announced the acquisition of a substantial portion of Macquarie Group's car loan portfolio, valued at $1.5 billion. This strategic move is set to bolster Allied Credit's position in the car finance market and expand its customer base. - read more
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has initiated a comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, with a particular focus on practices affecting consumers in regional and remote areas, including First Nations communities. This initiative seeks to enhance consumer protections and ensure fair lending practices across all demographics. - read more
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has conducted a comprehensive review of the motor vehicle finance sector, uncovering significant issues that adversely affect consumers. This investigation was initiated in response to a surge in complaints regarding high costs associated with car financing. - read more
In a bold move towards environmental sustainability, Bank Australia has ceased offering loans for new petrol, diesel, and hybrid vehicles as of February 2025. This policy change aligns with the bank's commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2035. - read more
Finding the right car loan in Australia can be just as critical as selecting the car itself. Car finance, though a common undertaking, involves nuanced decisions that can have a significant impact on your financial future. - read more
Car loan refinancing involves replacing an existing car loan with a new one, usually to lower the interest rate, reduce monthly payments, or modify the loan term. In Australia's fluctuating economic landscape, refinancing can be a strategic financial decision for borrowers looking to adjust their finances to more favorable terms. - read more
There's a unique thrill that comes with purchasing a new car; it's not just about getting from point A to B, but about fulfilling a dream and the freedom of the open road. However, with the excitement comes the need for careful planning and smart decision-making to ensure that your investment pays off in the long term. - read more
When it comes to buying a car, particularly a used one, having a flexible budget is essential. Flexible budgeting allows you to adjust your spending plan according to your current financial situation and any unexpected changes that might occur. This adaptability is crucial in managing your finances effectively and ensuring you make a purchase that won't strain your resources. - read more
Finding an affordable car finance option can make the dream of owning a vehicle a tangible reality for many Australians. It’s about understanding the intricacies of the loan market, interest rates, and finding a plan that aligns with your financial prospects and constraints. In a society built on the convenience of mobility, securing a car that meets both your needs and your budget is essential. - read more
Need Help Finding a Loan?
Get a free car loan eligibility assessment and compare offers tailored
specifically to your circumstances.
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
Knowledgebase
Loan Amortisation Schedule: This is the formal name for the repayment schedule that shows each of your mortgage payments with a breakdown of how much is applied to principal and how much is applied to interest.
