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Conversely, individuals who own their homes outright experienced a small decrease in confidence during the week. These homeowners often favor higher rates due to the impact on savings interest earnings. Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a cautious stance, indicating they have not ruled out future monetary policy tightening to quell inflation if necessary.
Speaking at a conference, Dr. Marion Kohler of the RBA's economic analysis department emphasized that while inflation appears to be on a downward trajectory, the journey to controlling it completely is expected to be prolonged. She credits the current inflation drop to a reduction in goods price inflation, with a forecast for continued low goods inflation in several categories.
Dr. Kohler also highlighted the persistent elevation of service-related inflation, encompassing everyday expenses such as haircuts, dental care, and professional services. She projected a slow decline in these costs as equilibrium is sought between supply and demand and domestic cost pressures lessen. This decrease is deemed essential for eventually meeting the RBA's inflation objectives.
The RBA's prognosis suggests that a return of inflation to the favored target zone of two to three percent could be achieved in 2025, with an eventual stabilization at the median target of 2.5 percent anticipated to occur in 2026. Moreover, Dr. Kohler prognosticated a slight uptick in the unemployment rate as the economy cools, leading up to 2026. Despite this, the forecasted unemployment levels are still expected to be comparatively low against historical standards spanning the last two decades.
Published:Tuesday, 13th Feb 2024
Source: Paige Estritori
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